CME FedWatch data cited by BlockBeats put the probability of the Federal Reserve leaving rates unchanged in October at 85.1% on Oct. 22 (Beijing time). The same snapshot assigned a 14.9% probability to a 25-basis-point hike.
Market-implied probabilities
The figures are market-implied probabilities from CME’s FedWatch tool, as reported by BlockBeats. They describe the pricing snapshot available when the flash was published and can change as interest-rate futures move.
The data do not establish what the Federal Reserve will decide. They show how the market was weighing an unchanged policy rate against a quarter-point increase at that point in time.