Markets expect the Federal Reserve to leave its federal-funds target range at 3.75%-4.00% at the October meeting, according to a BlockBeats preview. The flash said the probability of a hold was above 90%, with the decision scheduled for 2 a.m. Beijing time on Oct. 29.
December policy becomes the key question
The statement wording and Chair Warsh’s press conference may shape expectations for another 25-basis-point hike in December, which the report said markets had largely priced in. Goldman Sachs, Citi, Credit Agricole and BNY Mellon were among the institutions cited as expecting an October pause followed by a December hike, while Moody’s argued the Fed should not raise rates this week.
These are market and institutional previews, not Fed guidance. BlockBeats did not provide an exact December probability, and the cited forecasts could change after the decision. Read the English BlockBeats flash (original Chinese: BlockBeats flash).