DWF Labs said daily U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows tend to follow Bitcoin’s moves rather than predict the next one, BlockBeats reported on Oct. 22.
Study found stronger links to recent price action
The market maker’s report reviewed 694 trading days since the ETFs launched in January 2024. It found outflows in seven of eight instances when Bitcoin fell at least 15%, while all nine rallies of the same size recorded net inflows. The correlation between daily ETF flows and Bitcoin’s prior five-day move was 0.54, compared with 0.03 for the following five days. DWF summarized the result as flows confirming a trend rather than forecasting it.
The report put net outflows at $6.9 billion during the October 2025-to-February 2026 selloff and another $8.2 billion during the May-to-June decline. DWF said the data could not distinguish institutions from retail investors and estimated that about one-fifth of flows may be hedged trades pairing ETF purchases with short CME futures. The figures were attributed to DWF’s research and were not independently reproduced in the flash.