The World Bank forecasts that overall commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026 before falling 7% in 2027, according to its October 28 Commodity Markets Outlook release.
Supply shocks shape the outlook
The bank pointed to depleted oil inventories, disrupted grain shipments and El Nino risks as pressures on energy and food markets. Its forecast puts the decline in global oil supply at 5.2% this year, the largest outside the 2020 recession in more than four decades.
The projections remain sensitive to further supply disruptions. The bank said depleted inventories leave oil markets more exposed to additional shocks.
Sources: BlockBeats English report and the original Chinese flash, with the primary announcement. The flash was published 2026-10-28 at 13:39:28 UTC.