JPMorgan’s scenario analysis assigned a 66% probability to Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress after the U.S. midterm elections, while giving Republicans a 7% chance of holding both chambers, BlockBeats reported on Nov. 3.
Scenario ranges for the S&P 500
The analysis put the S&P 500 range at -0.25% to +0.5% for a Democratic sweep, +0.5% to +1% if Democrats controlled the House and Republicans the Senate, +1% to +1.25% if Republicans held both chambers, and +0.25% to +0.75% if Republicans held the House and Democrats the Senate.
BlockBeats said JPMorgan linked a Democratic sweep to concerns about tighter AI regulation and data-center restrictions. A Republican hold was described as the most favorable scenario for stocks, although the report also cited potential increases in deficit spending and long-term Treasury yields.
These are JPMorgan’s scenario estimates relayed by BlockBeats, not election results or guaranteed market outcomes.
Source: BlockBeats English report, published Nov. 3, 2026. Chinese source.