Predict.fun put the probability of Democrats winning both chambers of Congress at 77% ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, BlockBeats reported on Nov. 3.
Polling and market scenarios
Silver Bulletin’s national congressional ballot average as of Nov. 2 showed Democrats leading Republicans by 8.9 percentage points. The Seldon model gave Democrats a 79% chance of winning the Senate and a 99% chance of winning the House.
Predict.fun assigned 19% to a Republican Senate and Democratic House, 5% to Republicans holding both chambers, and 1% to Democrats winning the Senate while Republicans held the House. Its separate House-retake market showed a 96% probability.
Polling Forecast cautioned that polls had overestimated Democrats in five of the past six elections; a similar 3.5-point error this time would leave the Senate under Republican control. These are market and model estimates, not election results.
Source: BlockBeats English report, published Nov. 3, 2026. Chinese source.