A CNBC analysis cited by BlockBeats found the S&P 500 gained one year after all 11 U.S. midterm elections from 1982 through 2022, with an average return of 13.7%.
Divided-government history
Across 10 midterm and five presidential elections that produced divided government, the S&P 500 averaged a 15% one-year gain, with 14 of 15 observations positive. Single-party control was associated with an average one-year gain of 11.5% in the cited analysis.
Societe Generale cautioned that Federal Reserve policy and the corporate earnings cycle matter more than election results. The historical sample also included a 22.1% one-year decline after the 2000 election and a 38.3% gain after the 2020 election.
These are historical averages and observations cited by BlockBeats; they do not predict the 2026 election result or guarantee future market returns.
Source: BlockBeats English report, published Nov. 3, 2026. Chinese source.